A Detailed Look at Apple On Intel

Since Friday there has been quite a bit of noise concerning Apple’s supposed move to Intel. Now, I am not going to comment on whether this is a good idea or not I am just going to try and list out the pros and cons of such a move. From my perspective, as someone who holds a computer engineering degree, there are a whole lot of angles to this puppy. Lets take a look shall we?

Moving to Intel: The Upside

Supply Line: This has been a bigger problem for Apple than most people realize. In several quarters in the last few years’ sales of Macs have been hampered by a lack of chips. IBM just couldn’t get enough of them out the door in time and as a result Apple suffered. This is a big problem that will magically go away if Jobs decides to go with Intel. Since they have close to 80% of the chip market a shortage of chips will be a thing of the past.

Speed: Intel chips run faster than any other chips out there. If raw clock speed is what you are after then don’t go with AMD and shy away from IBM because Intel is your man. Now, is raw clock speed the end all be all that most consumers think it is?  Not hardly. But it does carry with it the prestige of having the fastest stuff. Switching will kill the “my PC is faster than your Mac” argument once and for all.

Software Sales: This could be big. Really big. If Apple releases OS X for x86 style architecture then any computer currently running Windows can now run OS X. And if Apple were to include and easy to use dual boot utility then sales would sky rocket. Imagine this, your (pick one, mom, dad, sister, friend, grandmother, aunt, cell mate etc.) uses Windows for some key application or because its what they know. Ok, fine. Well, you buy them OS X for about $100 (a third of the price of Windows) and install it as a dual boot on their Dell. Now they can use Windows for that one program that isn’t Mac compatible and then switch to OS X for media, email, web surfing etc. And this really helps those hard-core gamers out there. You just use Windows for games then restart into OS X for everything else. Sales will explode because now everyone in the world can potentially run OS X. And even if only 1% of those people buy OS X (forget any associated software like Final Cut) then Apple will have made an enormous profit.

Shafting Microsoft: This is the one thing that makes me want this deal to go through. The OEMs like Dell, Sony, HP, Gateway and the rest all have a problem and its called leverage. Or more importantly it’s called lack of leverage. What do I mean?  If Microsoft promises to release Longhorn by 2006 then Dell should ramp up production to meet the needs of all those consumers who are going to upgrade their system when the new OS comes out. But if MS pushes back their release date then all of the hardware manufacturers lose money because not as many people are buying their products. They feel no need to because they want to wait to until Longhorn comes out to upgrade. And if Longhorn comes out and sucks a lot of people might just stick with what they have until something better comes along. This all amounts to lots of lost money for Mr. Dell and his friends. But what can they do?  Tell MS that if they don’t ship Longhorn soon they will not ship it on their PCs?  Yeah right, and then they would file for bankruptcy shortly thereafter. No, MS has them over a barrel and they know it. But look at how things change if Apple enters the fray. All of a sudden Dell can inform MS that if Longhorn is ready by this Christmas ALL new Dells will ship with OS X. Would he really do that?  Probably not. But the threat is there. Now all of the OEMs have a bargaining chip to use against MS. This will put the squeeze on MS and force them to either compete fairly (something they have never been good at) or fall behind further. So, its possible that OS X could be put on quite a few machines for the sole reason of angering MS. Like I said, leverage. Plus think about the money it would save all of these OEMs. If OS X cost $129 and XP (or Longhorn) cost $400 which would they most likely choose if they wanted to make the most money. This is something I see Dell doing because that would further let them drive down the price of their machines. In fact, it would allow them to cut close to $200 from the cost of EACH of their machines. And if Dell starts to do it everyone else will do it just so they can keep the playing field level. As a result MS has to either drastically reduce the cost of Windows or let Apple drastically increase its market share. Either way they lose.

Better Benchmarks: It has always been a problem testing Apple/PC software and hardware against each other because each of the two players have such different configurations. But now, in the blink of an eye, that all changes. Now everyone is running at the same speed with the same bus and the same memory. This means that the better software will win and we all know MS’s track record for making quality software.

Graphics Cards: OS X can now take advantage of the latest and greatest video cards to power all sorts of games, iLife apps and, of course, Final Cut Pro. Those nice shiny 30” monitors are going to really dazzle people now!

Movies: This could be IT. This could be THE REASON. Yes, the real reason that Apple would consider this move. Intel has just released a new chip called the Pentium D. What’s so special about this chip you ask?  Why, it has built in copyright protection for movies. This means that it can (ideally) ensure that no illegal movies are created while using its hardware. Crazy huh?  Picture this if you will:  Apple wants to move into the movie market like it did the music market. What would they need more than anything?  A DRM scheme that would ensure the cooperation of all the major studios. How to get that?  Why use built in security that’s how. Now if Apple were to put the Pentium D into a new revamped Mac Mini that had S-Video output to it then you have the perfect $500 home entertainment PC. Download movies from Apple’s site (just like you download songs off of iTunes) onto your Mini, watch it on your TV and guess what?  You can’t pirate it because protection is built into the motherboard. Its everything that Microsoft’s Media Center wanted to be but couldn’t.

Moving to Intel: The Downside

Buffer Overflows: Not a huge deal, but still something to consider, are buffer overflows. Overflows can be handled by both hardware and software in an attempt to keep an OS running trouble free for as long as possible. The architecture that IBM is using currently has better support/protection against overflows.

Cost: Intel charges more for their chips than IBM does. So, this would negatively affect Apple’s bottom line. Bummer I know.

Dual Core Chips/Dual Chip Systems: Here is a big problem. IBM has got the whole dual core/dual chip thing down. They know how to build them efficiently, they know how to build them cheaply and they know how to build in scalability. Intel has much less experience doing this kind of thing. And if the future ultimately proves that dual core chips in dual processor arrangement are the way to go Intel is going to be left out in the cold.

The Future: Unlike IBM, Intel doesn’t have a clear direction for the future. While IBM has been working on the PowerPC and Cell processor Intel has spent the last decade on Itanium, which unfortunately, was a complete flop. Now Intel is looking around for a new direction or a new vision but sadly it may be too late. If this Cell technology turns out to be half as good as Sony and IBM claim then Intel and AMD are both in for a world of hurt. This is long range thinking I know but I sure hope Jobs has thought this through. If he bets on the wrong horse now it could really be painful and embarrassing to have to come crawling back to IBM and Sony five years from now.

Software: Obviously OS X won’t run on x86 gear at the moment so how do we fix this problem?  Two ways, rewrite everything (major pain) or emulate everything (major performance hit). While there are rumors that Tiger has been ported over to x86 there are still quite a few other programs that would still need a rewrite. Since there is no AltiVec/Velocity Engine in Intel’s world (nor is there really much of an equivalent) any Mac software that uses AltiVec needs a rewrite. Unless of course we do the emulation thing. In fact, a small company called Transitive recently created an emulator that would serve Apple’s needs nicely, assuming that is, that the performance isn’t degraded too bad.

The Intangibles: This is a hard to predict factor. It’s the emotional, gut reaction that all of the Mac users out there are going to have when they hear the news. Some are going to be pissed and Apple might actually lose some support from its fan base over this one. Especially if this doesn’t turn out ok Apple could alienate those that have kept them in business for the last two decades. What can I say, it’s a crap shoot.

Scalability: There has been some bad news from Intel recently. They seem to have reached the speed limit for their chips. Think about it, how long have they been trying to really blow past the 4 GHz barrier?  A while. How far have the gotten?  Not too far. Many have begun to realize that the Pentium architecture as been pushed about as far and as fast as it can go. This is really bad news for Intel because the Pentium line has been their meal ticket for a long time now. What are they going to do?  Start from scratch would be my suggestion but if they do that then say good bye to market share.

Staying With IBM: The Upside

PowerPC: Personally, I think that this is the best architecture currently on the market. The biggest reason for this claim is scalability. This means that while Intel is topping out at 4 GHz the PPC is continuing to get faster. And if the two processors are equally paired now, but Intel can’t go any faster, then in two years IBM will be at say 3.5 GHz and seriously whipping Intel in performance. This should be a big factor in sticking with IBM.

Cell Processor: This is the second biggest reason to stick with IBM. The Cell chip-set could be the next big thing in computing and I would hate for Apple to miss out on this one. Here they have a chance to really get in on the ground floor, better not waste this chance Steve!

Dual Core/Dual Chip: Now this is one thing that IBM has down, the whole dual core/dual chip setup and they are only getting better at it. If things continue to improve then IBM’s 970 chip-set could really ratchet up the processing power in the next 6 months. You figure Sony, MS and Nintendo are all using these chips in their next generation game consoles and all of those companies can’t be wrong . . .

Innovation: Once again we have an intangible. IBM tends to lead while others follow. Intel and AMD continue to refine their designs while IBM is out there making new designs. This is yet another hard to classify action that will have an emotional impact on the Mac faithful. Remember Wintel?  Intel is seen as the MS of the chip-making world, IBM the innovator. Beware of loosing that luster Apple.

Staying With IBM: The Downside

Shortages: Running out of chips (and thus computers) is really annoying and I can easily imagine Jobs taking this as a personal insult. It made him look very foolish to announce to the world one thing and then be proven wrong because IBM couldn’t get its act together. Ever heard the old saying “your mouth’s writing checks your ass can’t cash”?  Well, Steve wrote a lot of checks (3 GHz G5 anyone?) that IBM is having trouble cashing. Not a good idea big blue.

Game Machines: With MS, Sony and Nintendo all interested in IBM’s newest chips Apple is no longer their prized customer. Suddenly these three companies are going to be placing bigger orders and thus receiving chips first. Then, once those orders have been filled, if there is anything left, Apple will get a shot. I assure you that Jobs doesn’t like being ignored any more than he likes to be second fiddle.

Speed: Until the PPC runs faster than a Pentium you will always have people complaining that Intel or AMD has faster chips. Even if that ultimately doesn’t mean anything in today’s computing environment that old argument will still be around. Its time for IBM to step up to the plate and bury this stupid problem once and for all.

The Conclusion: Apple Will . . .

Apple will move to Intel if Jobs feels that that is the best way to capture the emerging computer/home-entertainment industry. If Jobs thinks that using Intel’s new Pentium D chip will allow Apple to create and then dominate a market just like it did with the iPod/iTunes combo then I can’t imagine anything stopping him from pursuing that course. However, Apple might win that industry but seriously lose out on its core business of making computers. If they do this they will have begun to morph into another Sony and I am not sure that this is a good thing.

Apple will stay with IBM if Jobs feels that the PowerPC and Cell technology are worth the wait for the rewards of more power. He will stay with IBM if he feels that ultimately they will produce a better chip-set that is capable of really smoking anything Intel has. Also, if they are looking to get more into the server space I can’t imagine them not wanting to go with IBM.

In Parting: My Bet is IBM

Now that I have given you a decent run down of the issues decide for yourselves what you think Apple will do. Personally, my bet is that they stick with IBM, but what do I know?  However I do know that I will be paying close attention this week to the WWDC won’t you?  But hey, maybe this was just Steve blowing smoke up our skirts in an attempt to drum up some more publicity and scare IBM into getting their act together. We shall see . . .